Tag Archive | "Hosni Mubarak"

Critical Analysis: Mubarak Sentenced to Life in Prison as Egyptians Take to the Streets

President Mubarak (Arabian Business)

On June 2nd, an Egyptian court sentenced deposed leader Hosni Mubarak to life in prison over the killing of innocent protesters in the Egyptian uprising of 2011.  Mubarak is the first former leader in the region to be tried in person in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, marking an ignominious end to a thirty-year reign.  Mr. Mubarak faced a potential death sentence for the failure of the state to stop the killing of almost 850 demonstrators.  Instead both Mubarak and his ex-Interior Minister, Habib el-Adly, face a life behind bars.

The Mubarak verdict was initially greeted with great celebration, especially among the families of the victims.  “I am so happy – this is the greatest happiness I have ever felt,” said Rada Mohamed Mabrouk, a 60-year-old Egyptian.  “The martyrs are all of our children.”  Sentencing Judge Ahmed Refaat described the end of “thirty years of darkness.”

But the mood quickly turned angry, with scuffles even breaking out right in the courtroom.  Many denounced the court’s failure to render a death sentence, while others decried the acquittal of several high level leaders more closely linked to the killings, and the acquittal of Mubarak’s two sons on corruption charges.  “It’s all an act.  It is a show.  It is a provocation,” said Alaa Hamam, one of thousands of protestors who took to Tahrir Square.  “The verdict means that the head of the regime and the minister of interior are the only ones who have fallen, but the rest of the entire regime remains,” added the Muslim Brotherhood in a prepared statement.

The Mubarak verdict comes on the eve of presidential elections in Egypt after over a year of military rule following Mubarak’s ouster.  Judging by the public reaction, the former leader’s conviction has not ushered in stability in the lead-up to the June 16-17 election, which pits Mubarak’s former prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, against Mubarak’s rival, Mohammed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood.  The widespread anger and chaos may not bode well for Shafiq because of his close previous ties to Mubarak.

In addition to Egypt’s uncertain political future, many fear that the verdict is subject to reversal.  Critics of the trial have described the investigations as “hasty and sloppy,” resulting in suspect “patchwork” evidence.  Additionally, because prosecutors made no showing that Mubarak directly ordered any killings, the Egyptian court convicted Mubarak of “accessory to murder” for his failure to stop the killing of protestors while in power.  Lawyers and political leaders have noted that such a rationale likely cannot support a murder conviction under international law and may be “doomed to reversal.”

Posted in 1TVFA Posts, 2Featured Articles, DJILP StaffComments (0)

Critical Analysis: Egyptian Election

May 23 and 24 marked Egypt’s first free presidential election since the 2011 Arab Spring revolution ousted Hosni Mubarak from over 30 years as Egypt’s unchallenged leader.  The mood in Egypt was excited, as many waited hours to cast the first meaningful vote of their lives.  There were eleven challengers (two of the 13 candidates listed on the ballot had withdrawn).  No candidate, however, won a majority.  Because of this, there will be a runoff election June 16-17 between the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last Prime Minister.  That race kicked off today.

Egypt Votes

This election is a monumental achievement for those who helped topple President Mubarak last spring.  But it is only one step in Egypt’s march toward democracy.  The transition from single party rule through the military’s transitional government to democracy will be difficult.  Some 30,000 volunteers fanned out to make sure the election was conducted fairly; few violations were reported.  There was, however, an underlying fear the military would try to hijack the election, even thought armored vehicles drove through the streets with loudspeakers broadcasting the military’s intention to hand over power to an elected civilian government.  Despite these assurances, some fear that the military will not withdraw completely from the political sphere.  One analyst predicted Egypt would go the way of Turkey and Pakistan: formal democracies where the military can nonetheless affect significant events.

As the results of the first round were announced on Monday, protesters stormed the headquarters of one of the two finalists.  Protests swept through Cairo and Alexandria.  The two contenders, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq, are the most polarizing figures in the race.  They are seen as extremist candidates – Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood does not have broad appeal with centrists and there is much distrust of those, like Shafiq, who served in President Mubarak’s regime.  These protests signal the challenges each candidate faces in the coming weeks.  Before the June 16th election, each candidate must amass a broad coalition of support, using only three weeks and the equivalent of $333,000.  On one hand, Mr. Morsi’s party is well established across the country.  Mr. Shafiq, on the other hand, has the vast network of Mubarak’s outlawed National Democratic party and the security forces behind him.  The candidates, however, must paint themselves as appealing to centrists to win the top spot.

The ultimate results of the election spells uncertainty for Egypt’s relations with Israel and the United States.  Both candidates, however, seem more inclined to “play the Egyptian street” than Mubarak.  This means a foreign policy less inclined to friendly relations with both the US and Israel.  Public opinion, under either candidate, will play a larger role.  And the public are not as pro-US or pro-Israel as the Mubarak regime generally had been.  For example, the Camp David Accords are likely to be reviewed.  Already, the transitional military government ended shipments of natural gas to Israel.  “Mubarak was dependable” on the international front; the new regime is likely to be less so.  The United States and Israel may have to put up with more hostile rhetoric, at least in the interim, from an emboldened public and an Egyptian parliament playing to a different crowd.

Regardless, the true effects will be seen when the results of the run-off election are announced in late June and the military hands over control of the government on July 1.  Egyptians have yet to draft and approve a new Constitution, so the president’s powers are not yet determined.  Whichever candidate wins will face the challenge of uniting a disgruntled country.  But, he will have a strong voice in shaping the Constitution and in driving the relationship with the West.  All eyes are on Egypt as it dives into the waters of democracy.

Posted in 1TVFA Posts, 2Featured Articles, Dan St. John, DJILP StaffComments (0)


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