Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the nation has used one particularly clever envoy to show where their loyalties are, the Giant Panda.[1] Ailuropoda melanoleuca, or the Giant Panda, may be a recognizable image all over the world, but the bears are only native to the bamboo forests of Central China.[2] In fact, all of the 2,000 pandas alive today[3] directly trace their origins back to China, either within their own lifespan[4] or through an ancestor. Accordingly, China as a nation legally owns all but one panda in the world regardless of whether they were born in China or to Chinese parents.[5] The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Fauna (CITES) lists pandas as an Appendix I restricted species[6], making them highly protected even during mundane activities like shipping between countries.[7] CITES is a wildly respected treaty, with 127 countries acceding and 53 ratifying it outright.[8] China assented in January of 1981[9] and the United States ratified even earlier in 1974.[10] With strict limitations on import and a practically perfect Chinese monopoly, there is only one way for other countries to get a panda for their own zoos, panda diplomacy. As the years of ‘hide and abide’ move aside for a diplomatically active China, these fluffy bears can become a bellwether.[11]
Panda diplomacy refers to the Chinese government’s practice of loaning pandas as a sign of social goodwill.[12] From the general public’s perspective, pandas are cute and fun to look at. They appeal to a broad range of people and can generate individual animal stars that rival even Pesto the Penguin or Moo Deng the Pigmy Hippo.[13] From China’s perspective, viral pandas serve a few purposes. It increases the social standing of China, which is heavily associated with the animal, and it gives China something to hold over their partner, putting them in a position of power. This article will review several ongoing examples of panda diplomacy and explain how the monopolization of pandas can serve as a harbinger of China’s next move.
Retired Ambassador and Diplomatic Studies Professor Barbara Bodine says “Pandas in and of themselves are not coveted; what is coveted is the expression of good standing from the Chinese government reflected by the gifting of pandas.”[14] This is because pandas, as vulnerable animals, affirm a soft relationship both in that moment and for the future.[15] As long as the relationship between China and the loanee remains positive overall, the loan gets renewed, but if the relationship changes negatively the panda bears may have to return as a kind of sanction.[16] By contract, all cubs are Chinese citizens regardless of their birth country and must be returned to China after their 4th birthday.[17] As the loanee’s citizens fawn over a new baby, the pressure on their government grows to maintain a good relationship with China, because one wrong move and the whole panda family will be on a flight back.[18] Functionally, this permits China to sidestep traditional diplomatic systems and speak directly to citizens. Some scholars have described this as an emerging third era of panda diplomacy where the goal is to build “guanxi” or trusting, long-term social and economic relationships.[19] Before 2008, pandas were loaned within a capitalistic model and their target locations were often zoos in prestigious capital cities with powerful economic markets resided nearby.[20] In 2008, a major earthquake rocked the small area of remaining bamboo forests in Central China and left wild pandas even more vulnerable, but this presented China with the opportunity to loan pandas away from the damaged areas to a whole new batch of countries who would have been unlikely candidates under the old model.[21] What sets these new candidate countries apart from historical zoo partners isn’t what they have, but what they can offer, often, mined resources to a very tech-friendly nation.[22]
Today pandas can be found across the globe and in environments far from their native lands, but even just a few examples speak volumes about how China sees itself and its future. One of the first countries to receive a panda in the modern era was the United States in 1972.[23] The animals were a peace offering during the east-west tensions of the Cold War and announced that China was reformed and ready to open up to the world.[24] The Smithsonian National Zoo, located in the U.S. Capital, maintained a population for decades as the two countries began trading at greater levels[25] until a frosty diplomatic period coincided with the end of the most recent panda lease.[26] Very recently China and the United States have worked out a new deal to return pandas to the National Zoo in D.C.[27], but Zoo Atlanta, home to the only other panda program in the country, has no plan in place for new bears after their old family was returned.[28] This suggests a rocky future on the horizon, as the hesitant partners continue to softly battle for political and economic dominance across the emerging world.[29]
Contrast this with Московский зоопарк, or in English, the Moscow Zoo. Like the Smithsonian, the Moscow Zoo began its panda program after a pair were gifted to the country’s longtime leader Vladimir Putin.[30] Unlike the U.S., this gift occurred in 2019 to mark the seventieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.[31] These bears will stay in Russia for at least 120 days a year for a term of fifteen years.[32] President Putin recently described the two countries as “brothers forever”.[33] Chinese trainers, or keepers, described the transfer to Russia as a “sign of great trust (from China)”.[34]
Then consider Qatar, who only received their first pandas in 2022.[35] Officially the pair were “a gift from China to commemorate the hosting of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™”.[36] According to the Qatari Consulate, since 2011, the economic relationship between China and Qatar has grown dramatically from 5.9B USD to 12.3B USD across a variety of investments.[37] Qatar is the largest supplier of liquid natural gas to China while eighty three companies with jointly operated Chinese-Qatari ownership generate 392 million USD.[38] More than twenty Chinese construction companies are currently working[39] on major projects in Qatar like the New Doha Port.[40] Just like these construction crews, the Qatari panda keepers will be busy for quite some time, as the countries agreed to a fifteen year loan.[41] On an even broader scale, China has invested heavily in the Middle East as part of their bid for energy resources[42] and has expanded their soft power via cultural influence.[43] Because Qatar has pandas, China and its allies can work on building diplomatic rapport with the entire Middle East.[44]
So why all the fuss over some fluffy bears? They matter because China says they do, and to receive or lose one serves is a highly visual marker of that country’s status in China’s eyes. A divide is growing between countries aligned with China versus those aligned with the United States.[45] While many are quick to respond with the risks, the term ‘new cold war’ is being used more and more to describe the conflict[46] as the days of ‘hide and abide’ become a distant memory.[47] Pandas are quickly becoming a cute way to build up one’s identity and distance the culture from the current political tensions. Where pandas are, and critically where they aren’t, provide a nuanced way to understand Chinese strategy in the long and short term. It even lets the average news reader know who China sees as an opportunity and who they see as a threat. Follow the pandas and you’ll follow China as it looks into the future. A future where Saudi Arabia and Iran reconcile at China’s request.[48] A future where a unified Korean Peninsula appears back on the world stage[49] and“(all) states … abandon nuclear deterrence policies based on first-use of nuclear weapons.”[50] A future where China becomes a next generation nation, pushing forward on “global biosecurity governance”[51] while implementing one of the most sophisticated civilian technological monitoring systems ever devised.[52] A future where China “broaden[s] financing channels” and “expand[s its] network of partners… to fully leverage the role of the Group of Friends of the GDI [Global Development Initiative]…”[53] A future achieved, one panda loan at a time.
[1] Ella Cao and Ryan Woo, Explainer: What is China’s Panda Diplomacy and How Does it Work?, Reuters (June 18, 2024), https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-is-chinas-panda-diplomacy-how-does-it-work-2024-06-18/.
[2] Donald G. Lindburg, Giant Panda, Encyclopaedia Britannica (Oct 24, 2024), https://www.britannica.com/animal/giant-panda.
[3] Id.
[4] Giant Panda, Smithsonian’s Nat’l Zoo and Conservation Biology Inst. (last visited Oct. 26, 2024), https://nationalzoo.si.edu/animals/giant-panda#:~:text=Scientists%20are%20not%20sure%20how,pandas%20as%20old%20as%2035.
[5] The exception to Chinese ownership is a single living panda in Mexico. China made a rare exception to their loan program when they gifted a male and female panda to Mexico outright. Both have since passed but their surviving cub is now the exception. Associated Press Staff, The Last Panda in Latin America? Mexico to Decide What Happens Next, NBC News (Nov. 18, 2022), https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/last-panda-latin-america-mexico-decide-happens-rcna57921.
[6] Commission Regulation 2023/966, J.O. (L 133).
[7] Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, art. 3, Mar. 3, 1973, 27 U.S.T 1087, 993 U.N.T.S. 243.
[8] Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Treaty Status Page, U.N. Treaty Database(last visited Oct. 26, 2024), https://treaties.un.org/pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280105383.
[9] Id.
[10] Id.
[11] Graham Allison, Alyssa Resar, & Karina Barbesino, The Great Diplomatic Rivalry: China vs the U.S., Belfer Ctr. for Sci. and Int’l Affairs 1 (August 2022), https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/pantheon_files/files/publication/GreatDiplomaticRivalry_ChinavsUS_vF_220801.pdf.
[12] Cao, supra note 1.
[13] For example, see Yoonjung Seo, South Koreans mourn as country’s first celebrity panda, Fu Bao, heads to China, CNN (Mar. 11, 2024), https://www.cnn.com/travel/south-korea-fu-bao-panda-china-intl-hnk/index.html, and see generally Amanda Kooser, Why We Love Moo Deng — The Science Behind Our Obsession With Baby Animals, Forbes (Oct. 4, 2024), https://www.forbes.com/sites/amandakooser/2024/10/04/what-our-moo-deng-baby-hippo-obsession-says-about-humanity/.
[14] The Giant Pandas Have Left the National Zoo. What’s Next for U.S.-China Relations?, Geo. Univ. (May 30, 2024), https://www.georgetown.edu/news/the-giant-pandas-have-left-the-national-zoo-whats-next-for-u-s-china-relations/.
[15] Id.
[16] It is worth nothing that China is also very serious about panda conservation and will maintain some contracts with countries simply because it is the best interest of the species. The Giant Pandas Are Back at the National Zoo. But Are U.S.-China Relations Any Different?, Geo. Univ. (Oct. 17, 2024), https://www.georgetown.edu/news/dc-pandas-return-ask-a-professor/; What is panda diplomacy, and why are the bears going back to China?, Al Jazeera (Oct. 3, 2023), https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/3/what-is-panda-diplomacy-and-why-are-the-bears-going-back-to.
[17] While the loan contracts are not always published publicly, this term is generally known to be true and with the exception of the aforementioned Mexican bear the author is unaware of any examples that contradict this. Geo. Univ., supra note 13.
[18] For example, in 2020 the Smithsonian’s pandas welcomed their first surviving cub. Three years later their family loan was not extended, and the entire family was returned through a crate and plane combo referred to as the “FedEx Panda Express”. The was the end of a roughly fifty-year partnership and was described as the end of an era for the “beloved giant pandas”. See Caitlin O’Kane, The National Zoo in Washington D.C. Returned Its Beloved Pandas to China. Here’s Why., CBS News (Nov. 9, 2023), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pandas-returned-to-china-national-zoo-washington-when-why-how-many-left/.
[19] Kathleen Carmel Buckingham, Jonathan Neil William David, & Paul Jepson, Diplomats and Refugees: Panda Diplomacy, Soft “Cuddly” Power, and the New Trajectory in Panda Conversation, 15 Env’l Rev. and Case Stud. 262 (Sep. 2013).
[20] Id.
[21] Id.
[22] Id.
[23] The History of Giant Pandas at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Smithsonian’s Nat’l Zoo and Conservation Biology Inst. (last visited Oct. 28, 2024), https://nationalzoo.si.edu/animals/history-giant-pandas-zoo.
[24] Geo. Univ., supra note 13.
[25] Anshu Sirpurapu & Noah Berman, The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship, Couns. on Foreign Relations (May 14, 2024), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship.
[26] Edward Wong, The End of Panda Diplomacy?, NY Times (Nov. 8 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/08/us/politics/panda-zoo-china.html; see generally Julian E. Barnes & Edward Wong, In Risky Hunt for Secrets, U.S. and China Expand Global Spy Operations, NY Times (Sep. 17, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/17/us/politics/us-china-global-spy-operations.html.
[27] Meet the Pandas, Smithsonian’s Nat’l Zoo and Conservation Biology Inst. (last visited Oct. 28, 2024), https://nationalzoo.si.edu/dcpandas.
[28] FAQS: Giant Panda Program at Zoo Atlanta, Zoo Atlanta (last visited Oct. 28, 2024), https://zooatlanta.org/panda-cam/faqs-giant-panda/.
[29] For examples see Steve Rolf & Seth Schindler, The US–China Rivalry and the Emergence of State Platform Capitalism, 55 Env’t and Plan. A: Econ. and Space 1255 (Aug. 2023); Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Frederik Kurcz, & Maria Sole Pagliari, Do Words Hurt More Than Actions? The Impact of Trade Tensions on Financial Markets, 36 J. of Applied Econometrics 1138 (July 26, 2022).
[30] Ren Qi, Russia’s 1st Giant Panda Cub Born in Moscow Zoo, ChinaDaily.com (Nov. 1, 2023), https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/01/WS64f11b18a310d2dce4bb33d1.html.
[31] Id.
[32] Id.
[33] Putin says Russians, Chinese ‘Brothers Forever’, TASS (May 16, 2024), https://tass.com/politics/1789105.
[34] Qi, supra note 39.
[35] Qatar’s Panda House, Visit Qatar (last visited Oct. 28, 2024), https://visitqatar.com/intl-en/things-to-do/get-inspired/panda-park.
[36] Id.
[37] Investments, The Consulate Gen. of the State of Qatar in Guangzhou- Republic of China (last visited Oct. 28, 2024), https://guangzhou.consulate.qa/en/china/investments#:~:text=There%20are%20179%20Chinese%20companies,of%20around%20QAR%201.43%20billion.
[38] Id; Quatari Rials to US Dollards Today, Wise (last visited Nov. 11, 2024), https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/qar-to-usd-rate.
[39] Investments, supra note 37.
[40] Id.
[41] Li Hongyang, Pandas Reach New Home in Qatar, To Stay for 15 Years, ChinaDaily.com (Oct. 20, 2022), https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202210/20/WS63501d31a310fd2b29e7d6eb.html.
[42] Yiling Huang, Research on Energy Strategy and Chinese Energy Investment in the Middle East, 81 IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Env’t Sci. 1, 2-3 (2017).
[43] Emrah Yildirimcakar & Zhaoying Han, China’s Soft Power Strategy in the Middle East, 28 Israel Affairs 199, 201-02 (Feb. 18, 2022).
[44] Id. The first era of panda diplomacy was during the Tang Dynasty, 618-907 C.E., so that era’s exact recipient counties are unknown at least to this author, though it is said to have flown “around the world”. See Mia Taylor, A Brief History of ‘Panda Diplomacy’= With New Additions to Global Zoos, BBC ¶ 3 (Aug. 8, 2024), https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240226-a-brief-history-of-panda-diplomacy—with-new-additions-to-global-zoos.
[45] Allison, supra note 11,
[46] For examples see Dmitri Alperovitch, How the U.S. Can Win the New Cold War, Times (May 1, 2024), https://time.com/6971329/us-china-new-cold-war/; Joshua Keating, Are We Really in a “New Cold War” with China?, Vox News (July 31, 2024), https://www.vox.com/china/363849/us-china-new-cold-war-ambassador-nicholas-burns; and Charles A. Kupchan, A New Cold War Could Be Much Worse Than the One We Remember, The Atlantic (June 3, 2023), https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/cold-war-china-risks/674272/.
[47] Allison, supra note 11 at 6.
[48] People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs [China] Position Paper of the People’s Republic of China for The Summit of the Future and the 79th Session of The United Nations General Assembly ¶ 7 (Sep. 19, 2024), https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zy/wjzc/202409/t20240920_11493896.html#:~:text=With%20the%20aim%20of%20delivering,a%20global%20community%20of%20development. [herein after Position Paper]
[49] Id.at ¶ 9.
[50] Id.at ¶ 12.
[51] Id. at ¶ 13.
[52] See Zeyi Yang, The Chinese Surveillance State Proves That the Idea of Privacy is More “Malleable” Than You’d Expect, MIT Tech. Rev. ( Oct. 10, 2022), https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/10/10/1060982/china-pandemic-cameras-surveillance-state-book/.
[53] Position Paper, supra note 48 at 15.
