In 2015, the world watched as 195 countries “joined”[1] the Paris Agreement (“Agreement”)[2] at the United Nations (“UN”) Climate Change Conference (COP21).[3] A new hope emerged that the international community could unite to tackle climate change. However, this hope has swiftly diminished by the actions of party states since the Agreement has been signed.[4] The Agreement lacks sufficient mechanisms to hold party states accountable for their actions while providing for the maximum amount of leniency.[5] The UN’s inability to enforce the Agreement has rendered it largely ineffective and impractical for addressing the climate crisis.[6]
The Agreement’s overarching goal was to keep the “increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to strive to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”[7] The 1.5°C benchmark was chosen because beyond the 1.5°C there are risks of severe impacts to the global ecosystem.[8] These impacts include, flooding, draughts, famine, natural disasters, etc.[9] The agreement sets 2°C as the upper limit.[10] After 2°C, “dangerous and cascading effects of human-generated climate change will occur.”[11] However, as of 2018 the IPCC has removed the 2°C language in their reports.[12]
Article 4 of the Agreement requires each party state to establish nationally determined contributions (“NDCs”).[13] NDCs outline and communicate the country’s post-2020 climate actions and goals.[14] An NDC is an outline of how each country plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet the 1.5°C goal of the Agreement.[15] Each country’s legislature determines its NDC.[16] Article 13 requires parties to provide a “national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases” as well as information “necessary to track progress made in implementing and achieving its nationally determined contribution.”[17]
Article 15 of the Agreement establishes a committee to enforce compliance with the Agreement.[18] The Paris Agreement Implementation and Compliance Committee (“PAICC”) was established under the Agreement.[19] As established in Article 15, PAICC functions in a “non-adversarial and non-punitive” way.[20] There are no substantial consequences when party states fail to comply with the Agreement, the committee is unable to punish or act in a way that is adversarial to a party state.[21] When there are increasing risks to lives across the globe, this type of leniency cannot be allowed.
The inherent problems in Article 15’s lack of enforcement can be demonstrated by comparing the European Union’s (“EU”) and the United States’ (“U.S.”) compliance with the Agreement. In 1990, the EU emitted around 5 billion tons of greenhouse gasses.[22] Under the Agreement, the EU committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40% or around 2 billion tons by the year 2030.[23]
Less than a year after the Agreement went into force, the European Council affirmed its commitment, stating, “[t]he European Council strongly reaffirms the commitment of the EU . . . to swiftly and fully implement the Agreement.”[24] The EU recognized the Agreement’s requirements and began implementing policies to work towards its goals.[25] In 2018, the European Council reiterated in its conclusions, “[a]ll relevant EU legislation and policies need to be consistent with and contribute to, the fulfillment of the climate neutrality objective. . .”[26] In 2018, the European Council reiterated in its conclusions, “[a]ll relevant EU legislation and policies need to be consistent with and contribute to, the fulfillment of the climate neutrality objective. . .”[27] In 2019, the EU developed the European Green Deal (“EGD”), which aimed for the EU “to become the [first] climate-neutral area in the world.”[28] Climate-neutral or net-zero emissions are achieved when “. . . the amount of greenhouse gas released into the atmosphere is neutralized.”[29] Climate neutrality is an important step in limiting greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining the 1.5°C goal outlined in the Agreement.[30]
Since the Agreement took effect, the EU’s emissions have shown a consistently downward trend.[31] In 2021, under the EGD, the EU set a more ambitious climate target, aiming to reduce emission levels to 55% of their 1990 levels by 2030.[32] Additionally, under the EGD the EU aimed to be carbon neutral by 2050.[33] The goals of the EDG and the EU are clearly working. In 2023, the EU’s emissions decreased by 8% from their 2022 levels, an overall decrease of 37% from the 1990 levels.[34] The emissions reduction seen in 2023 can be linked to the “acceleration of energy transition.”[35] The EU’s progress demonstrates that countries can unite in addressing climate change. The EU has been able to organize several independent nations to address and implement long-term climate solutions.[36] The EU clearly continues to work towards the goals of the Paris Agreement.
By contrast, in 2017, under Republican former and current President-Elect Donald Trump, the U.S. began the process of withdrawing from the Agreement.[37] Trump’s reason for withdrawing was “. . . because of the unfair economic burden imposed on American workers, businesses, and taxpayers. . .”[38] due to the large amount of funding America pledged under the Agreement.[39] During his first presidency, Trump’s administration repealed twenty-eight air pollution and emissions policies.[40] Deregulations included: removing the requirement for oil and gas companies to report their methane,[41] loosening a rule designed to limit toxic emissions from major industrial polluters,[42] altering regulations which control how refineries track pollution in neighboring communities,[43] amongst others. Trump has already committed to removing America from the Agreement when he returns to office in January 2025.[44]
In 2021, on his first day in office Democratic President Joe Biden had the U.S. rejoin the Agreement.[45] During his presidency, President Biden set a goal of “reducing [America’s] net greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030.”[46] He also set the goal of achieving “net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050.”[47] However, as President Biden prepares to leave office it is uncertain what the future will hold.
The stark contrast between the EU and the U.S. reveals the major flaw in the Agreement. Despite the opposition from other party states, the U.S. withdrew from the Agreement.[48] The U.S. actively worked against the goals of the Agreement by rolling back emissions standards.[49] However, when President Biden brought the U.S. back into the Agreement the most significant punishment was that the U.S. would “once again have to follow the rules.”[50] PAICC lacks authority to penalize party states for failing to submit NDCs or comply with the Agreement.[51] Instead the enforced mechanism articulated in Article 15 of the Agreement[52] relies on the “naming and shaming” approach, with the hope that negative international perception will serve as a form of accountability and drive compliance.[53] However, this approach appears to be ineffective for countries and administrations that are less impacted by their global reputation.
Relying on shame, along with a powerless committee, to enforce accountability is, at best, inadequate. At worst, it enables parties like the U.S. to withdraw their commitment every time the political tides turn, as can be seen by the differences in the views of the last two Presidents. An Agreement without an enforcement mechanism is little more than a symbolic agreement, offering minimal motivation for parties to prioritize environmental action when the benefits may not be immediately apparent to their citizens.
So, what can party states do? Party states must strengthen the Agreement with a binding enforcement mechanism that holds parties accountable to their commitments. The mechanism must be such that party states and their citizens will actively want to ensure they meet their NDCs. One example could be fines imposed on a country that fails to meet its goal. These fines could be the price to purchase carbon credits above the country’s allotted amount. Other examples include, trade barriers put in place until the goal is achieved, and a new goal is set, or travel bans preventing travel until the country has met its goal. Countries bound by the Agreement should not be allowed to withdraw unless serious circumstances, such as significant economic or political turmoil, prevent their participation.
The EU demonstrates that diverse countries can collaborate in reducing climate change. Without a strong, binding enforcement mechanism, the Agreement is little more than a hope that parties will voluntarily meet their goals. The impacts of not implementing enforcement mechanisms sooner are obvious: climate change will continue to get worse.[54] In 2024, concrete action and robust enforcement are not just necessary; they are critical to ensuring the Agreement achieves its intended goals.
[1] The Paris Agreement, Climate Action, United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement#:~:text=Today%2C%20195%20Parties%20(194%20States,have%20joined%20the%20Paris%20Agreement (last visited on Nov. 17 2024).
[2] Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, art. 2, Dec. 12, 2015, T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104.
[3] The Paris Agreement, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement#:~:text=The%20Paris%20Agreement%20is%20a,force%20on%204%20November%202016 (last visited on Nov. 5, 2024).
[4] Eric Wolff, Trump administration files paperwork to withdraw U.S. from Paris, Politico (Nov. 4, 2019 4:00 PM), https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/04/trump-withdraw-paris-climate-agreement-000316.
[5] Rafael Leal-Acras & Antonio Morelli, The Resilience of the Paris Agreement: Negotiating and Implementing the Climate Regime, 31 Geo. Env’t L. Rev. 289, 309 (2018).
[6] Id.
[7] Paris Agreement, supra note 2.
[8] Tom Di Liberto, et al., What’s in a number? The meaning of the 1.5-C climate threshold, Climate.Gov (Jan. 9, 2024), https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/whats-number-meaning-15-c-climate-threshold.
[9] Global Climate Change Impacts, Nat’l Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin., https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/climate/climate-change-impacts (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[10] Why did the IPCC choose 2°C as the goal for limiting global warning?, Mass. Inst. Tech., https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/why-did-ipcc-choose-2deg-c-goal-limiting-global-warming (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[11] NASA Study Reveals Compounding Climate Risks at Two Degrees of Warming, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3278/nasa-study-reveals-compounding-climate-risks-at-two-degrees-of-warming/ (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[12] Why did the IPCC choose 2°C, supra note 10.
[13] The Paris Agreement, supra note 2, at art. 4 para 2.
[14] Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs (last visited on Nov. 5, 2024).
[15] Id.
[16] Paris Agreement, supra note 2, at art. 4 para. 2.
[17] Id. at art. 15 para 2.
[18] Id.
[19] More about PAICC, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/bodies/constituted-bodies/paris-agreement-implementation-and-compliance-committee-paicc/more-about-paicc (last visited on Nov. 17, 2024).
[20] Paris Agreement, supra note 2, at art. 15 para 2.
[21] Id.
[22] Total EU greenhouse gas emissions, 1990-2016, https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/total-ghg-emissions-1?activeTab=8a280073-bf94-4717-b3e2-1374b57ca99d (last visited on Nov. 17, 2024).
[23] EU measures against climate change, https://www.eumonitor.eu/9353000/1/j9vvik7m1c3gyxp/vkqp9dzgriys?ctx=vg9hjjllgxmz#:~:text=Under%20the%20Paris%20agreement%2C%20the,and%20climate%20neutrality%20by%202050 (last visited on Nov. 5, 2024).
[24] European Council conclusions on the Paris Agreement on climate change, 22/06/2017 https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/06/22/euco-paris-agreement/ (last visited Nov. 5, 2024).
[25] Timeline – Paris Agreement on Climate Change, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/paris-agreement-climate/timeline-paris-agreement/ (last visited on Nov. 5, 2024).
[26] European Council, 12-13/12/2019, 12-13 December 2019, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2019/12/12-13/(last visited Nov. 5, 2024).
[27] Id.
[28] Id.
[29] 5 facts about the EU’s goal of climate neutrality, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/5-facts-eu-climate-neutrality/ (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[30] A Beginner’s Guide to Climate Neutrality, United Nations Climate Change, https://www.legalbluebook.com/bluebook/v21/tables/t6-case-names-and-institutional-authors-in-citations (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[31] Progress towards achieving climate targets in the EU-27, https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/total-greenhouse-gas-emission-trends/progress-towards-achieving-climate?activeTab=8a280073-bf94-4717-b3e2-1374b57ca99d (last visited Nov. 5, 2024).
[32] Timeline, supra note 25.
[33] EU measures against climate change, supra note 23.
[34] EEA Trends and Projections: EU greenhouse gas emissions see significant drop in 2023, European Environment Agency, https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/newsroom/news/eea-trends-and-projections (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[35] Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, at 4 COM (2024) 498 final (Oct. 31, 2024).
[36] Id.
[37] Rafael Leal-Acras & Antonio Morelli, The Resilience of the Paris Agreement: Negotiating and Implementing the Climate Regime, 31 Geo. Env’t L. Rev. 1, 3 (2018).
[38] Eric Wolff, supra note 4.
[39] Id.
[40] Id.
[41] Nadja Popvich, et al. 84 environmental rules on the way out under Trump, The Seattle Times (June 2, 2019 8:12 PM), https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/84-environmental-rules-on-the-way-out-under-trump/.
[42] Id.
[43] Id.
[44] Ben Lefebvre & Zack Colman, Trump would withdraw US from Paris climate treaty again, campaign says, Politico (June 28, 2924 8:45 PM), https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/trump-paris-climate-treaty-withdrawal-again-00165903.
[45] Press Statement, Anthony J. Blinken Secretary of State, The United States Officially Rejoins the Paris Agreement (Feb. 19, 2021).
[46] The United States’ Nationally Determined Contribution Reducing Greenhouse Gases in the United States: A 2030 Emissions Target, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/United%20States%20NDC%20April%2021%202021%20Final.pdf (last visited Nov. 5, 2024).
[47] Id. at 22.
[48] James McBride, The Consequences of Leaving the Paris Agreement, Council on Foreign Relations (June 1, 2017, 8:00 AM), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/consequences-leaving-paris-agreement.
[49] Popvich, supra note 41.
[50] Matt McGrath, US rejoins Paris accord: Biden’s first act sets tone for ambitious approach, British Broad. Corp. (Feb. 19, 2021), https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55732386.
[51] Imad Antoine Ibrahim, Sandrine Maljean-Dubois & Jessica Owley, The Paris Agreement Compliance Mechanism: Beyond COP 26, 11 Wake Forest L. Rev. 147, 147 (2021).
[52] Id. at 12.
[53] Id.
[54] Global Climate Change Impacts, supra note 9.
